The latest global model forecasts indicate that the prevailing neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are likely to continue over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and that there is an enhanced possibility of development of negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions over the Indian Ocean during July to September 2021.
As sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are known to have a strong influence on Indian monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these Ocean basins. IMD will issue the forecast for the rainfall during the second half of the season (August + September 2021) and for the month of August during the end of July or the beginning of August 2021.
1. Background
This year, IMD has adopted a new strategy for issuing monthly and seasonal
operational forecasts for the southwest monsoon rainfall over the country by modifying the
existing two-stage forecasting strategy.
The new strategy is based on the existing statistical
forecasting system and the newly developed Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) based forecasting
system. The MME approach uses the coupled global climate models (CGCMs) from different
global climate prediction and research centers including IMD’s Monsoon Mission Climate
Forecasting System (MMCFS) model.
Accordingly, IMD had issued the first stage forecast for the 2021 southwest monsoon
seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country on 16th April and first update for the
forecast on 1
st June 2021.
Now, IMD has prepared the forecast outlook for the month of July 2021 southwest
monsoon season.
2. SST conditions in the Pacific and the Indian Oceans
Currently, the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as well as the atmospheric conditions
over the equatorial Pacific Ocean indicate neutral ElNino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
conditions.
The latest forecasts from MMCFS and other global models indicate that ENSO
neutral conditions are likely to continue during the remaining part of the monsoon season.
In addition to ENSO conditions over the Pacific, other factors such as the Indian Ocean
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) have also some influence on the Indian monsoon. Currently,
the SST conditions over the equatorial Indian Ocean are very close to the threshold level for
negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions.
The latest forecasts from MMCFS and other
global models indicate negative IOD conditions are likely to develop during the remaining part of
the monsoon season.
3. Probabilistic Forecast for the 2021 July Rainfall over the Country
The rainfall averaged over the country as a whole during July 2021 is most likely to
be normal (94 to 106 % of LPA).
The spatial distribution of probabilistic forecasts for tercile categories (above normal,
normal and below normal) for the July rainfall
The spatial distribution
suggests that below normal to normal rainfall probability is likely over many areas of
northwest India and some parts of the south peninsula, central, east and northeast India.
Normal
to above-normal rainfall is most likely to experience over parts of central India and adjacent
areas of peninsular India and Gangetic plains. The white shaded areas within the land area
represent climatological probabilities.
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