Probability forecast of tercile categories* (below normal, normal and above normal) for the seasonal rainfall over India during the 2021 southwest monsoon season (June-September). The figure illustrates the most likely categories as well as their probabilities. The white shaded areas represent climatological probabilities. The probabilities were derived using the MME forecast prepared from a group of best-coupled climate models. (*Tercile categories have equal climatological probabilities, of 33.33% each).
Probability forecast of tercile categories* (below normal, normal and above normal) for the seasonal rainfall over India during the 2021 southwest monsoon season (June-September). The figure illustrates the most likely categories as well as their probabilities. The white shaded areas represent climatological probabilities. The probabilities were derived using the MME forecast prepared from a group of best-coupled climate models. (*Tercile categories have equal climatological probabilities, of 33.33% each).
Summary of the Forecast for the 2021 southwest monsoon Rainfall
- Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (96 to 104 % of Long Period Average (LPA)).
- Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 98% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1961-2010 is 88 cm.
- Neutral ENSO conditions are prevailing over the Pacific Ocean and Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest global model forecast indicates neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue over the equatorial Pacific and negative IOD conditions are likely to develop over the Indian Ocean during the ensuing monsoon season.
IMD will issue the updated forecasts in the last week of May2021. In addition, to update for the April forecast, forecasts for monsoon season (June-September) rainfall for four homogenous regions and forecast for the month of June also will be issued.
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