Conditions favourable for N-E monsoon to set in by October 17, says Met

With the gradual withdrawal of the South-West monsoon over the northern and central parts of the country, conditions are becoming

favourable for the commencement of the North-East monsoon by October 17 (Thursday next), which is around its normal time.

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls accompanied with thunderstorms and lightning is likely over parts of south peninsular India during the next four to five days, India Met Department (IMD) said on Sunday.

S-W monsoon withdrawal

The announcement came on the day when the preceding South-West monsoon withdrew from more parts of the North Arabian Sea, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh on Sunday.

The withdrawal had commenced after more than a month after extended monsoon spilled into early October, making it the most delayed in recorded history. The usual date for the monsoon to start exiting West Rajasthan is September 1.

As on Sunday, the withdrawal line passed through Kishanganj, Bankura, Jamshedpur, Champa, Seoni, Khargone, Bharuch, and Diu.

Conditions are becoming favourable for further withdrawal from most parts of East and Central India, some parts of North-East India, some more parts of West India, remaining parts of the north Arabian Sea and some parts of Central Arabian Sea during next two days.

Alongside, the IMD noted that reversal of surface and low-level winds from westerly to easterly has already commenced over the South-Eastern parts of Peninsular India and the easterly winds are likely to strengthen during the next few days.

This is what has led the national forecaster to declare that the North-East monsoon is likely to commence over the next four to five days. The preceding South-West monsoon ended with a surplus of 10 per cent at the end of the season on September 30.

An IMD outlook for October 18 to 20 said that scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely over the South Peninsula, East and North-East India. Isolated heavy falls are possible over parts of the region during this period.

Rains to intensify

The five preceding days ahead of the likely date of commencement of the North-East monsoon would see rainfall ratcheting up in strength and intensity over the South Peninsula interspersed by standout features of thunder and lightning.

On Sunday, cyclonic circulations hovered in anticipation over what is considered its command areas along South Assam, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and over Sri Lanka.

A long-range outlook by the Sri Lanka Met Department has assessed that there is a possibility of slightly above average rainfall for the island nation during October-November-December except for the northern parts.

A 10-day outlook given out the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology has indicated that a low-pressure area may form over the Bay of Bengal during this period.

Earlier, the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum that met in Thiruvananthapuram had arrived at a consensus predicting a normal to slightly above normal North-East monsoon season for most parts of South Asia.

Source; BL