Monsoon to get extended life as fresh 'low's are forecast

The IMD forecasts heavy to very heavy rainfall over Gujarat, Uttarakhand, East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar

Both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal are forecast to erupt yet again, with fresh activity with a low-pressure area to pop up over the basins by Saturday and intensify. 

India Met Department (IMD) has located a preparatory cyclonic circulation over Saurashtra and adjoining areas of the North-East Arabian Sea this (Friday) morning. Under its influence, the 'low' is likely to form over Saurashtra and neighborhood by tomorrow and is likely to become 'more marked' during the subsequent two days.

Similarly, a cyclonic circulation lies over North-East Bay of Bengal and neighborhood, which would descend to lower levels to set up the other 'low' over North Bay of Bengal by tomorrow, and become 'more marked'.

This would make for rare 'twin-engined' monsoon conditions developing so late into the South-West monsoon, which should normally draw to a close by September 30 (or three days from now).    

Coupled with this is a third cyclonic circulation over South-West Uttar Pradesh, which would trigger the formation of a helpful East-West trough over the Indo-Gangetic plains during the next two days.

All these are rain-driving atmospheric features thriving on the monsoon flows originating from both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal and their convergence.

The IMD has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall over Gujarat, Uttarakhand, East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar for Thursday, while it would be heavy over Jammu & Kasmir and Himachal Pradesh for Friday.

Heavy rain has been forecast also for Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, East Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra, Bengal, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Assam and Meghalaya.

Towards the South, West, and Peninsular India,  heavy rain has been forecast for the day for Telangana, South Interior Karnataka, Konkan and Goa. 

Heavy rains seen

Squally weather may prevail over the Gujarat coast, adjoining North-East Arabian Sea as well as the East Indian Ocean and adjoining South Bay of Bengal. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.

Moisture incursion and strong convergence in the easterly winds may trigger fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy with extremely heavy falls over East India for next three to four days.

Likely getting affected by this is Bihar (during next three days), while heavy to very heavy falls are forecast for the hills of Bengal, Sikkim, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh during the four days.

These regions also constitute Met subdivisions which have witnessed a dry spell so far during this monsoon. The poor rains here are being attributed to the fact that there wasn't any sustained 'break-monsoon' period. 

The Himalayan foothills, parts of East and North-East India as well as the East Coast are known to receive precipitation during a 'break monsoon' when rains shut out over large parts of the rest of the country.  

The IMD has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall over Gujarat also during the next three to four days. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over Assam, Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura during the period with rains scaling up from Sunday.

Source; BL