‘Heavy rain’ forecast for most of South

Rain deficit for the country as a whole has worsened a couple of notches over the past few days but showers breaking out over parts of the South and East of the country over the next few days should bridge the gap issue to some extent.

As for North-West India, widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls forecast for Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and West Uttar Pradesh during this period is expected to improve the overall situation.

But Saurashtra & Kutch with a gaping deficit of 60 per cent and adjoining West Rajasthan with 47 per cent would be mostly left out, and wait out even more until the northern limit of the monsoon closes in.

Trough shifting South

Rains have been delayed in these regions by more than 15 days, with the just-concluding active phase over North India giving them a miss. States of Rajasthan and Gujarat had received non-seasonal rains associated with cyclone ‘Vayu’ earlier in June.

On Tuesday, the monsoon trough, which decides the spread of the rains, has started shifting to the southwards and is likely headed to its original alignment from where it should bring rains back to Central India and the adjoining peninsula.

This away-movement of the trough should reduce the intensity of rainfall over Assam, Meghalaya, and the North-Eastern States over the next five days, the India Met Department (IMD) said.

The Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Service has hinted that the Bay would remain in animated state for the rest of July, with at least one circulation going on to become a monsoon depression off the Odisha coast next week.

It remains to be seen whether these rain-driving circulations/low-pressure area/depression from the Bay of Bengal manage to penetrate the landscape deep enough to bring rains to Gujarat and Rajasthan.

Meanwhile on Tuesday, the IMD said in an evening update that the monsoon flow will further strengthen over the South and Central Arabian Sea during the next four days, likely heralding its keenly awaited revival.

Active to vigorous monsoon conditions have been forecast over Kerala and the adjoining districts of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka marked by rainfall at most places and heavy to very heavy and extremely heavy falls, mainly from Thursday to Saturday.

Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also forecast over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and West Uttar Pradesh until Friday. Rainfall may scale up as well over Odisha and Chhattisgarh from Thursday, with isolated heavy falls.

Source;BL