A fresh Western Disturbance is very likely to affect Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit - Baltistan and higher reaches of Himachal Pradesh from 18th February 2020 night. Under its influence, light Isolated to scattered rainfall/snowfall activity very likely over these regions during 18th -19th February 2020. o In quick succession, another Western Disturbance very likely to affect Western Himalayan Region & adjoining plains from 20th February. Under its influence, an induced cyclonic circulation is very likely to develop over southwest Rajasthan on 20th February with high moisture feed from the Arabian Sea at lower & mid-tropospheric levels. Under its influence light/moderate fairly widespread to widespread rain/snowfall very likely over Western Himalayan Region and scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi during 20th & 21st February 2020. There is a possibility of isolated heavy falls over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand on 21st February. o Due to interaction between warm & moist lower level easterlies (from anti-cyclonic circulation over Northwest Bay of Bengal) and middle & upper-level westerlies (due to Western Disturbance), isolated to scattered rain/thundershower is also likely over Uttar Pradesh and north Madhya Pradesh on 20th & 21st and over north Chhattisgarh & Bihar on 21st February 2020. o A strong wind (speed 20-30 kmph) likely over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh on 20th & 21st February 2020.
Source; IMD
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