India Met Department (IMD) has announced that the South-West monsoon may enter Kerala 'slightly delayed' on June 6 this year with a model error of plus or minus four days.
Conditions are becoming favourable for advance of the monsoon over the southern part of the Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands (Bay Islands) and adjoining South-East Bay of Bengal by the weekend (May 18 and 19).
The IMD's announcement comes a day after private forecaster Skymet set June 4 as the day of onset for Kerala and May 22 for the Andaman & Nicobar Islands in the extreme South-East Bay.
The monsoon usually sets over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about seven days. It marks the start of rainy season and as the monsoon progresses northward, relief from scorching summer experienced.
The IMD said it has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala from 2005 onwards. An indigenously developed state of the art statistical model with a model error of ± 4 days is used for the purpose.
The six predictors used in the models are (i) Minimum temperatures over North-west India, (ii) Pre-monsoon rainfall peak over South Peninsula, (iii) Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) over South China Sea, (iv) Lower tropospheric zonal wind over South-East Indian ocean, (v) upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean, and (vi) OLR over the South-West Pacific region.
IMD’s operational forecasts of the date of monsoon onset during the past 14 years (2005-2018) were proved to be correct except in 2015, a special bulletin said.
Source; BL
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